{"id":537,"date":"2017-09-18T18:29:53","date_gmt":"2017-09-18T18:29:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/?p=537"},"modified":"2017-09-18T18:31:47","modified_gmt":"2017-09-18T18:31:47","slug":"stratfor-describes-a-paradise-lost-to-chinas-ambition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/?p=537","title":{"rendered":"Stratfor describes a paradise lost to China\u2019s ambition"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Taklamakan<\/a><\/p>\n

Taklamakan Desert in China\u2019s Xinjiang Uygur province. China photos\/Getty Images.<\/p>\n

Summary: Stratfor describes the next phase of China\u2019s expansion and its likely consequences. China\u2019s political and environmental problems are typical of what global growth will create during the next several decades. We must learn to manage this process better as we go from today\u2019s 7 billion people to the almost inevitable 10 billion by 2050. Failure will wreck the world with some combination of war, pollution, and habitat destruction.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnother Paradise Lost to China\u2019s Ambition\u201d<\/h3>\n

Stratfor, 17 September 2017. Visuals added.<\/h4>\n

The tale of the Silk Road is one of intrigue, war and cities lost. But within this complex and quixotic tableau, it is the story of China\u2019s Tarim Basin that best echoes the age-old warning: History is doomed to repeat itself.<\/p>\n

The ill-fated river network comprises the Kashgar, Yarkant, Hotan and Aksu rivers, which stream from the glacial and snow melt of surrounding mountaintops to converge at Aral, where they merge into the Tarim River. The waterway then flows through the Taklamakan Desert, a sea of sand in the shadow of the Tianshan Mountains and one of the driest regions in the world. The name Taklamakan means \u201conce you enter, you don\u2019t come out\u201d \u2014 an accurate description, not just of the experiences of hapless ancient travelers but also of the river system whose waters never escape the desert.<\/p>\n

Few of the rivers that feed the Tarim flow year-round, particularly in recent decades as agriculture has strained the limited basin\u2019s supplies. But the burden farming has placed on the region\u2019s resources is hardly new. The westernmost reach of the Chinese world has long been essential to the country\u2019s aspirations of building a buffer against foreign invasion, and at the height of the Silk Road era, it provided the empire with access to lucrative trade networks that stretched across the Eurasian landmass. Sustaining the sizable populations needed to secure and defend the region naturally required funds and food, resulting in the adaptation of intensive agricultural practices and irrigation. From antiquity to modernity, this practice has caused rivers to run dry and lakes to vanish.<\/p>\n

Even so, some areas of China have begun to make an effort to restore the vital waters.\u00a0Nationwide environmental reforms,<\/a>\u00a0backed by growing popular support, have only bolstered this local initiative. But sprawling cotton farms, an emerging energy sector and the surrounding Xinjiang province\u2019s role as a link in Beijing\u2019s crucial\u00a0Belt and Road Initiative<\/a>\u00a0could jeopardize the basin\u2019s nascent recovery.<\/p>\n

The remains of the lost city of Niya lie deep in the Taklamakan Desert.<\/h4>\n
\"Lost<\/a>
Lost city of Niya, 14 Nov 2011. By the International Dunhuang Project\/Wikicommons.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

By the Waters of the Taklamakan.<\/h4>\n

Throughout history, the parched lands of the Taklamakan Desert have experienced some brief flashes of relief. Cities and kingdoms thrived near oases, creating stops along the Silk Road\u2019s northern branch. And where the Tarim River spilled its waters near the Kuruk-tagh (\u201cdry mountain\u201d), there was once a lake known by some as Lop Nur, and by others as the Puchang Sea. The body of water is estimated to have been somewhere between Lake Ontario and Lake Michigan in size, and it fed the Loulan Kingdom from 200 B.C. to 220 A.D. during the Han dynasty.<\/p>\n

By 645, however, the settlement had been abandoned. According to recent sediment studies, its rapid collapse stemmed from the overuse of the region\u2019s water resources, which reached a level comparable to\u00a0the desiccation of the Aral Sea<\/a>\u00a0taking place in this century. Lop Nur \u2014 and the Tarim Basin that fed it \u2014 simply wasn\u2019t up to the task of sustaining the needs of an empire. The westward expansion that the Han dynasty oversaw brought an unprecedented number of people to the region to live in fortified cities and trading posts. Large-scale irrigation emerged in the first century A.D., a novelty in a corner of the world where cultivation was confined to lands surrounding natural oases.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/a><\/p>\n

Growing Cotton in the Desert.<\/h4>\n

Over a millennium later, the waters of the Tarim Basin are once again straining to meet the needs of the local population and economy. Already showing increasing levels of salinity \u2014 a sign of overuse \u2014 the waters began to face worse conditions in the latter half of the 20th century. Between 1959 and 1983, the rate of desert absorption of the Tarim Basin increased from 66% to 81% . Lop Nur, which had persisted in a diminished form as a \u201cwandering lake,\u201d disappeared completely in 1964.<\/p>\n

Many factors led to the unsustainable consumption behind these waterways\u2019 decline, but agriculture was undoubtedly the most culpable. The Chinese government has built numerous reservoirs and dams to alter the flow of the region\u2019s intermittently supplied rivers, including the Tarim, and today farming accounts for nearly half of Xinjiang\u2019s gross domestic product. Lately the region has only gotten thirstier. Throughout most of the past century, 60% to 80% of the land has been dedicated to growing grain, but by the 1990s the production of cash crops \u2014 primarily cotton \u2014 had skyrocketed.<\/p>\n

Xinjiang\u2019s cotton industry is now caught in the middle of the tug-of-war taking place between China\u2019s geopolitical imperatives and the environment\u2019s limits. The region contributes more than 50% of China\u2019s total cotton production and about 10% of the world\u2019s supply each year \u2014 output supported by the Taklamakan Desert\u2019s water resources. At the same time, Xinjiang\u2019s population is expanding once again, and by some estimates it will maintain its double-digit growth through 2020. As a result, the pressure mounting on the Tarim Basin is unlikely to ease in the years ahead, even as the Chinese government sinks billions of yuan into restoring parts of the river.<\/p>\n

Ironically, climate change has granted the Tarim River a temporary reprieve: Warming temperatures have accelerated the runoff from nearby glaciers, adding to its supplies in the short run. Still, this much-needed boost is finite. Current temperature projections indicate that glacial waters, which account for roughly 40% of the volume of rivers nearby, could permanently dry up in the long run.<\/p>\n

Chinese farm workers pick cotton in the fields in the northwestern region of Xinjiang.<\/h4>\n

\"Chinese<\/a><\/p>\n

Brimming With Discontent.<\/h4>\n

To make matters even more complicated, the issue of water scarcity is closely intertwined with the fraught minority politics of Xinjiang \u2014 a region that\u00a0China\u2019s Han majority shares with the Turkic Uighur minority.<\/a>\u00a0The Han control much of the area\u2019s cotton production through the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, which functions as a blend of paramilitary and business units. Such\u00a0bingtuan<\/em>\u00a0systems have deep roots: In the final centuries B.C., Han troops were responsible for implementing the region\u2019s first massive irrigation and land reclamation projects. This \u201cTuntian\u201d model of military colonization was highly successful, leveraging the power of the state to see through the massive and complicated undertakings needed to ensure that agriculture flourished in Xinjiang.<\/p>\n

The Tuntian model still exists today, though it has given rise to a glaring imbalance between large quasi-military operations and small civilian farmers. While local family plots in the region rely on public infrastructure for access to water, subjecting them to usage regulations, bigger farms can afford to install their own pumps, which aren\u2019t necessarily beholden to the same laws. Meanwhile, the runoff from agricultural pursuits pollutes what water resources are left. Each of these issues disproportionately affects native Uighurs, an ethnic group that has traditionally relied on oasis-based smallholdings and animal husbandry to survive. Alterations in the water system are deeply disruptive to this way of life, and as water scarcity worsens in Xinjiang, so, too, may\u00a0the discontent simmering among its Uighur community.<\/a><\/p>\n

Such discord could certainly throw a wrench in Beijing\u2019s plans for Xinjiang. The region is a cornerstone of China\u2019s newest Silk Road, the sprawling Belt and Road Initiative. Through Xinjiang, Beijing hopes to connect its lands\u00a0westward to Europe,<\/a>\u00a0by way of Central Asia, and\u00a0southward to the Indian Ocean,<\/a>\u00a0by way of Pakistan. But doing so would require maximizing Xinjiang\u2019s output \u2014 including in cotton-based textiles \u2014 for export along these trade routes.<\/p>\n

After nearly two decades of restoration efforts in the Tarim Basin, it is still unclear whether the the region\u2019s water resources will be able to shoulder their newest burden. After all, attempts to line canals and improve irrigation efficiency can only go so far when it comes to growing cotton in the desert. If Xinjiang maintains its current level of production, it will likely come at the expense of an ecosystem that boasts one of the highest concentrations of rare vegetative species in the world. And though it won\u2019t be the first time a nation\u2019s imperatives trump environmental conservation, it could be the last in the Tarim Basin if Beijing stretches the river\u2019s resources too far.<\/p>\n

A NASA satellite image shows the dried up lake of Lop Nur.<\/h4>\n

\"Satellite<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cAnother Paradise Lost to China\u2019s Ambition<\/a>\u201d
\nis republished with permission\u00a0of Stratfor<\/a>.<\/h4>\n

About Stratfor<\/h3>\n

Founded in 1996, Stratfor provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. By placing global events in a geopolitical framework, they help customers anticipate opportunities and better understand international developments. They believe that transformative world events are not random and are, indeed, predictable. See their\u00a0About Page<\/a>\u00a0for more information.<\/p>\n

Source:\u00a0https:\/\/fabiusmaximus.com\/2017\/09\/18\/stratfor-describes-the-cost-of-chinas-ambition\/<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Taklamakan Desert in China\u2019s Xinjiang Uygur province. China photos\/Getty Images. Summary: Stratfor describes the next phase of China\u2019s expansion and its likely consequences. China\u2019s political and environmental problems are typical of what global growth will create during the next several decades. We must learn to manage this process better as we go from today\u2019s 7 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-chinas-uyghur-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=537"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":540,"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/537\/revisions\/540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/en.uyghuracademy.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}